Economics in the Age of Algorithms

Economics in the Age of Algorithms,” AEA Papers and Proceedings 115 (2025): 1–23.

What Has a Foundation Model Found? Using Inductive Bias to Probe for World Models

What Has a Foundation Model Found? Using Inductive Bias to Probe for World Models,” with Keyon Vafa and, Ashesh Rambachan, International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2025.

Using Large Language Models to Promote Health Equity

Using Large Language Models to Promote Health Equity” with Pierson, Emma, Shanmugam, Divya, Movva, Rajiv, Kleinberg, Jon, Agrawal, Monica, Dredze, Mark, Ferryman, Kadija, Gichoya, Judy Wawira, Jurafsky, Dan and Koh, Pang Wei, NEJM AI 2.2 (2025): AIp2400889.

Large language models: An applied econometric framework

Large language models: An applied econometric framework,” with Rambachan, Ashesh, 2025, NBER Working Papers 33344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Do financial concerns make workers less productive

Do financial concerns make workers less productive?” with Kaur, Supreet, Oh, Suanna and Schilbach, Frank, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 140.1 (2025): 635–689.

Potemkin Understanding in Large Language Models

Potemkin Understanding in Large Language Models,” with Marina Mancoridis, Bec Weeks and, Keyon Vafa, International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2025.

What’s Producible May Not Be Reachable: Measuring the Steerability of Generative Models

What’s Producible May Not Be Reachable: Measuring the Steerability of Generative Models” with Keyon Vafa, Sarah Bentley and, Jon Kleinberg, arXiv preprint arXiv:2503.17482 (2025).

The challenge of understanding what users want: Inconsistent preferences and engagement optimization

The challenge of understanding what users want: Inconsistent preferences and engagement optimization” with Kleinberg, Jon and Raghavan, Manish, Management Science 70.9 (2024): 6336–6355. Journal Version. Also appeared in ACM EC (2022), Exemplary Applied Modeling Track Paper.

The unreasonable effectiveness of algorithms

The unreasonable effectiveness of algorithms” with Ludwig, Jens and Rambachan, Ashesh, AEA Papers and Proceedings 114 (2024): 623–627.

Evaluating the world model implicit in a generative model

Evaluating the world model implicit in a generative model” with Vafa, Keyon, Chen, Justin, Rambachan, Ashesh and Kleinberg, Jon, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 37 (2024): 26941–26975.

The Inversion Problem: Why Algorithms Should Infer Mental State and Not Just Predict Behavior

The Inversion Problem: Why Algorithms Should Infer Mental State and Not Just Predict Behavior,” with Jon Kleinberg, Jens Ludwig, and Manish Raghavan. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 19.5 (2024): 827-838

Do large language models perform the way people expect? Measuring the human generalization function

Do large language models perform the way people expect? Measuring the human generalization function” with Vafa, Keyon and Rambachan, Ashesh, International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2024.

Machine learning as a tool for hypothesis generation

Machine learning as a tool for hypothesis generation” with Ludwig, Jens, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 139.2 (2024): 751–827.

Language generation in the limit

Language generation in the limit” with Kleinberg, Jon, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 37 (2024): 66058–66079.

Does counting change what counts? Quantification fixation biases decision-making

Does counting change what counts? Quantification fixation biases decision-making” with Chang, Linda W, Kirgios, Erika L and Milkman, Katherine L, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 121.46 (2024): e2400215121.

A Scarcity Literature Mischaracterized with an Empirical Audit

A Scarcity Literature Mischaracterized with an Empirical Audit,” with Anuj Shah, Eldar Shafir and Jiaying Zhao, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2023).

Human bias in algorithm design

Human bias in algorithm design” with Morewedge, Carey K, Naushan, Haaya F, Sunstein, Cass R, Kleinberg, Jon, Raghavan, Manish and Ludwig, Jens O, Nature Human Behavior 7.11 (2023): 1822–1824.

Automating Automaticity: How the Context of Human Choice Affects the Extent of Algorithmic Bias

Automating Automaticity: How the Context of Human Choice Affects the Extent of Algorithmic Bias,” with Amanda Agan, Diag Davenport and Jens Ludwig, NBER working paper, 30981, February 2023.

Use large language models to promote equity

Use large language models to promote equity” with Pierson, Emma, Shanmugam, Divya, Movva, Rajiv, Kleinberg, Jon, Agrawal, Monica, Dredze, Mark, Ferryman, Kadija, Gichoya, Judy Wawira, Jurafsky, Dan and Koh, Pang Wei, arXiv preprint arXiv:2312.14804 (2023).

Measuring the Completeness of Economic Models

Measuring the Completeness of Economic Models,” with Drew Fudenberg, Jon Kleinberg and Annie Liang, Journal of Political Economy, 130(4), 2022.

Fragile Algorithms and Fallible Decision-Makers: Lessons from the Justice System

Fragile Algorithms and Fallible Decision-Makers: Lessons from the Justice System,” with Jens Ludwig, Journal of Economic Perspectives 35.4 (2021): 71-96.

An algorithmic approach to reducing unexplained pain disparities in underserved populations

An algorithmic approach to reducing unexplained pain disparities in underserved populations,” with Emma Pierson, David M. Cutler, Jure Leskovec and Ziad Obermeyer, in Nature Medicine volume 27, pages 136–140 (2021)

On the Inequity of Predicting A While Hoping for B

On the Inequity of Predicting A While Hoping for B,” with Ziad Obermeyer, AEA Papers and Proceedings. Vol. 111. 2021.

Quantifying the Causal Effects of Conversational Tendencies

Quantifying the Causal Effects of Conversational Tendencies,” with Justine Zhang and Cristian Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil, Proceedings of ACM CSCW, 2020.

An Economic Perspective on Algorithmic Fairness

An Economic Perspective on Algorithmic Fairness“. with Ashesh Rambachan, Jon Kleinberg and Jens Ludwig, in AEA Papers and Proceedings (2020 Vol. 110, pp. 91-95). [nonrefereed]

Allocation of COVID-19 Relief Funding to Disproportionately Black Counties

Allocation of COVID-19 Relief Funding to Disproportionately Black Counties”, with Pragya Kakani, Amitabh Chandra and Ziad Obermeyer. Journal of American Medical Association, August 2020.

Scarcity and Cognitive Function around Payday

Scarcity and Cognitive Function around Payday: A Conceptual and Empirical Analysis,” with Anandi Mani, Eldar Shafir, and Jiaying Zhao, Journal of the Association for Consumer Research, 2020

Algorithms as discrimination detectors

Algorithms as discrimination detectors.” with Jon Kleinberg, Jens Ludwig, and Cass R. Sunstein. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences July 28 (2020).

Dissecting Racial Bias in an Algorithm Used to Manage the Health of Populations

Dissecting Racial Bias in an Algorithm Used to Manage the Health of Populations,” with Ziad Obermeyer, Brian Powers, and Christine Vogeli, Science, 366(6464), pp.447-453, 2019.

Simplicity Creates Inequity: Implications for Fairness, Stereotypes, and Interpretability

Simplicity Creates Inequity: Implications for Fairness, Stereotypes, and Interpretability,” with Jon Kleinberg, AMC Conference on Economics and Computation (EC), 2019. 

Diagnosing Physician Error: A Machine Learning Approach to Low-Value Health Care

Diagnosing Physician Error: A Machine Learning Approach to Low-Value Health Care,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137(2), 2022. (Also 2019 NBER Working Papers 26168, National Bureau of Economics Research, Inc.)

Making sense of recommendations

Making sense of recommendations,” with Mike Yeomans, Anuj Shah, and Jon Kleinberg (2019), Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 32(4), 403-414.

The Theory is Predictive, but is it Complete? An Application to Human Perception of Randomness

The Theory is Predictive, but is it Complete? An Application to Human Perception of Randomness,” with Jon Kleinberg and Annie Liang, (2017), Proceedings of the 2017 ACM Conference on Economics and Computation.

Direct Uncertainty Prediction for Medical Second Opinions

Direct Uncertainty Prediction for Medical Second Opinions,” with Maithra Raghu, Katy Blumer, Jon Kleinberg, Rory Sayres, Ziad Obermeyer, and Robert Kleinberg, International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2019.

Discriminative Regularization for Generative Models

Discriminative Regularization for Latent Variable Models with Applications to Electrocardiography,” with Andrew Miller, Ziad Obermeyer and John Cunningham, International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2019.

Discrimination in the Age of Algorithms

Discrimination in the Age of Algorithms,” joint with Jon Kleinberg, Jens Ludwig, and Cass Sunstein, Journal of Legal Studies, 2018.

An exercise in self-replication: Replicating Shah, Mullainathan, and Shafir (2012)

An exercise in self-replication: Replicating Shah, Mullainathan, and Shafir (2012),” with Anuj Shah and Eldar Shafir, Journal of Economic Psychology (2018)

A Comparison of Patient History- and EKG-based Cardiac Risk Scores

A Comparison of Patient History- and EKG-based Cardiac Risk Scores,” joint with Andrew C. Miller and Ziad Obermeyer, Proceedings of the AMIA Summit on Clinical Research Informatics (CRI), 2019

Debt Traps? Market Vendors and Moneylender Debt in India and the Philippines

Debt Traps? Market Vendors and Moneylender Debt in India and the Philippines,” with Dean Karlan and Benjamin N. Roth (2018), forthcoming American Economic Review: Insights.  (Also National Bureau of Economic Research working paper 24272).

Predictive Modeling of US Healthcare Spending in Late Life

Predictive Modeling of US Healthcare Spending in Late Life,” with Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein and Ziad Obermeyer (2018), Science 29 Jun 2018: Vol. 360, Issue 6396, pp. 1462-1465.  DOI: 10.1126/science.aar5045

Algorithmic Fairness

Algorithmic Fairness,” joint with Jon Kleinberg, Jens Ludwig and Ashesh Rambachan (2018), AEA Papers and Proceedings (Vol. 108, pp. 22-27). (Non refereed).

Money in the Mental Lives of the Poor

Money in the Mental Lives of the Poor,” with Anuj Shah, Jiaying Zhao and Eldar Shafir (2018). Social Cognition36(1), 4-19.

Human Decisions and Machine Predictions

Human Decisions and Machine Predictions,” with Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec and Jens Ludwig, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133.1 (2018): 237-293. (also: NBER Working Papers 23180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.)

Individual differences in normal body temperature: longitudinal big data analysis of patient records

Individual differences in normal body temperature: longitudinal big data analysis of patient records,” with Obermeyer, Ziad, and Jasmeet K. Samra (2017), British Medical Journal 359

The Selective Labels Problem: Evaluating Algorithmic Predictions in the Presence of Unobservables

The Selective Labels Problem: Evaluating Algorithmic Predictions in the Presence of Unobservables,” with Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec and Jens Ludwig (2017), Proceedings of the 23rd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining.

Comparison-Based Choices

Comparison-Based Choices,” with Jon Kleinberg and Johan Ugander (2017) Proceedings of the 17th ACM Conference on Economics and Computation (EC).

Does Machine Learning Automate Moral Hazard and Error?

Does Machine Learning Automate Moral Hazard and Error?” with Ziad Obermeyer (2017), American Economic Review, May 207, 107 (5): 476-80.  (Non-refereed)

Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach

Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach,” with Jann Spiess (2017), Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2017, 31 (2): 87-106.

Inherent Trade-Offs in the Fair Determination of Risk Scores

Inherent Trade-Offs in the Fair Determination of Risk Scores,” with Jon Kleinberg and Manish Raghavan (2017). Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Innovations in Theoretical Computer Science (ITCS).

Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago

Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago”, with Heller, S. B., Shah, A. K., Guryan, J., Ludwig, J., and Pollack, H. A. (2015).  (Formerly National Bureau of Economic Research No. 21178) Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2017, 132 (1): 1-54

Assessing Human Error Against a Benchmark of Perfection

Assessing Human Error Against a Benchmark of Perfection,” with Ashton Anderson and Jon Kleinberg, Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 2016.

The Psychological Lives of the Poor

The Psychological Lives of the Poor,” with Frank Schilbach and Heather Schofield, American Economic Review. May 2016, 106 (5): 124-127. (Non-refereed)

Productivity and Selection of Human Capital with Machine Learning

Productivity and Selection of Human Capital with Machine Learning,” with Aaron Chalfin, Oren Danieli, Andrew Hillis, Zubin Jelveh, Michael Luca, and Jens Ludwig, American Economic Review. May 2016, 106 (5): 435-440. (Non refereed)

Getting to the Top of Mind: How Reminders Increase Saving

Getting to the Top of Mind: How Reminders Increase Saving,” with Dean Karlan, Margaret McConnell, & Jonathan Zinman, Management Science. December 2016, 62 (12): 3393 – 3411

Self-Control at Work: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Self-Control at Work: Evidence from a Field Experiment,” with Supreet Kaur & Michael Kremer, Journal of Political Economy, 2016, 123 (6), 1227-1277

Behavioral Hazard in Health Insurance

Behavioral Hazard in Health Insurance,” with Katherine Baicker & Joshua Schwartzstein, 2015, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2015, 130(4), 1623-1667

Prediction Policy Problems

Prediction Policy Problems,” with Jon Kleinberg, Jens Ludwig and Ziad Obermeyer, American Economic Review (May), 2015.  (Non-refereed)

Scarcity Frames Value

Scarcity Frames Value,” with Anuj Shah and Eldar Shafir, Psychological Science. April 2015, 26 (4): 402-412.

Learning through Noticing

Learning through Noticing,” with Rema Hanna & Joshua Schwartzstein, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 129.3 (2014): 1311-1353.

Externalities, Internalities, and the Targeting of Energy Policy

Externalities, Internalities, and the Targeting of Energy Policy,” with Hunt Allcott  and Dmitry Taubinsky, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 112 (April) 2014, pages 72-88.

Behavioral Design: A New Approach to Development Policy

Behavioral Design: A New Approach to Development Policy,” with Saugato Datta, Review of Income and Wealth 60.1 (2014): 7-35.

Poverty Impedes Cognitive Function

Poverty Impedes Cognitive Function,” with Anandi Mani, Eldar Shafir, and Jiaying Zhao, Science, August 30 2013, 341(6149): 976-980.

Targeting with Agents

Targeting with Agents,” with Paul Niehaus, Antonia Atanassova, & Marianne Bertrand, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 5 (1), 2013, pp. 206-38

Notes on behavioral economics and labor market policy

Notes on behavioral economics and labor market policy,” with Linda Babcock, William Congdon and Lawrence Katz, IZA Journal of Labor Policy 1, no. 1 (2012): 1-14.

Health Insurance Coverage and Take‐Up: Lessons from Behavioral Economics

Health Insurance Coverage and TakeUp: Lessons from Behavioral Economics,” with Baicker, Katherine and William J. Congdon. Milbank Quarterly 90.1 (2012): 107-134.

Some Consequences of Having too Little

Some Consequences of Having too Little,” with Anuj K. Shah & Eldar Shafir, Science, November 2 2012, 338 (6107): 682-685.

A Reduced Form Approach to Behavioral Public Finance

A Reduced Form Approach to Behavioral Public Finance” with Joshua Schwartzstein & William J. Congdon, Annual Review of Economics, 2012.

Comparison Friction: Experimental Evidence from Medicare Drug Plans

Comparison Friction: Experimental Evidence from Medicare Drug Plans,” with Jeffrey Kling, Eldar Shafir, Lee Vermeulen, & Marian V. Wrobel. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127:1 (February 2012), 199-235.

Mechanism Experiments and Policy Evaluations

Mechanism Experiments and Policy Evaluations,” with Jens Ludwig & Jeffrey R. Kling, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25:3 (Summer 2011), 17-38.

Helping Consumers Know Themselves

Helping Consumers Know Themselves,” with Emir Kamenica & Richard Thaler, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 2011, 101(3), 417-22. (Non-refereed)

Rigidity in Microfinancing: Can One Size Fit All?

Rigidity in Microfinancing: Can One Size Fit All?” with Dean Karlan, QFinance (June 2010).

Self Control and the Development of Work Arrangements

Self Control and the Development of Work Arrangements,” with Supreet Kaur & Michael Kremer, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, May 2010, 100, 624-628.  (Non-refereed)

Behavior and Energy Policy

Behavior and Energy Policy,” with Hunt Allcott, Science 5 March 2010: 1204-1205.

Affirmative Action in Education: Evidence from Engineering College Admissions in India

Affirmative Action in Education: Evidence from Engineering College Admissions in India,” with Marianne Bertrand & Rema Hanna, Journal of Public Economics, 94 (1-2), 2010: 16-29.

What’s Advertising Content Worth? Evidence from a Consumer Credit Marketing Field Experiment

What’s Advertising Content Worth? Evidence from a Consumer Credit Marketing Field Experiment,” with Marianne Bertrand, Dean Karlan, Eldar Shafir, & Jonathan Zinman, 2010. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 125, No. 1: 263–305.

Behavioral Economics and Tax Policy

Behavioral Economics and Tax Policy,” with William J. Congdon & Jeffrey R. Kling, National Tax Journal, 62:3 (September 2009), 375-386.

Sticking With Your Vote: Cognitive Dissonance and Political Attitudes

Sticking With Your Vote: Cognitive Dissonance and Political Attitudes,” with Ebonya Washington, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 1(1), 2009:86-111.

Labor Market Discrimination in Dehli: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Labor Market Discrimination in Dehli: Evidence from a Field Experiment,” with Abhijit Banerjee, Marianne Bertrand, & Saugato Datta, Journal of Comparative Economics, 37( 1), 2009:14-27.

Limited Attention and Income Distribution

Limited Attention and Income Distribution,” with Abhijit V. Banerjee, American Economic Review, 98( 2), 2008:489-93.

Why Don’t People Insure Late-Life Consumption? A Framing Explanation of the Under- Annuitization Puzzle

Why Don’t People Insure Late-Life Consumption? A Framing Explanation of the Under- Annuitization Puzzle,” with Jeffrey Robert Brown, Jeffrey R. Kling, & Marion V. Wrobel, American Economic Review, 98 (2), 2008: 304-09.

Coarse Thinking and Persuasion

Coarse Thinking and Persuasion,” with Joshua Schwartztein & Andrei Shleifer, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123( 2) 2008: 577-619.

Obtaining a Driver’s License in India: An Experimental Approach to Studying Corruption

Obtaining a Driver’s License in India: An Experimental Approach to Studying Corruption,” with Marianne Bertrand, Simeon Djankov, & Rema Hanna, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 22(4), 2007: 1639-1676.

Development Economics Through the Lens of Psychology

Development Economics Through the Lens of Psychology,” Proceedings of the Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, 2006. (Non-Refereed)

Behavioral Economics and Marketing in Aid of Decision-Making among the Poor

Behavioral Economics and Marketing in Aid of Decision-Making among the Poor,” with Marianne Bertrand, & Eldar Shafir, 2006, Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, 25, 1, 8-23.

Implicit Discrimination

Implicit Discrimination,” with Marianne Bertrand & Dolly Chugh, American Economics Review, 95(2), 2005:94-98.

The Market for News

The Market for News,” with Andrei Shleifer, American Economic Review, 95(4), 2005: 1031-1053.

Do Cigarette Taxes Make Smokers Happier?

Do Cigarette Taxes Make Smokers Happier?” with Jonathan Gruber, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 5(1), 2005.

Psychology, Behavioral Economics, and Public Policy

Psychology, Behavioral Economics, and Public Policy,” with On Amir, Dan Ariely, Alan Cooke, David  Dunning, Nicholas Epley, Botond Koszegi, Donald Lichtenstein, Nina Mazar, Drazen Prelec, Eldar Shafir, & Jose Silva, 2005, Marketing Letters, 16 (3-4), p. 443-454. (Non-refereed)

A Behavioral Economics View of Poverty

A Behavioral Economics View of Poverty,” with Marianne Bertrand, & Eldar Shafir, 2004, American Economic Review, 94, 2, 419-423.

Are Emily and Greg More Employable than Lakisha and Jamal? A Field Experiment on Labor Market Discrimination

Are Emily and Greg More Employable than Lakisha and Jamal? A Field Experiment on Labor Market Discrimination,” with Marianne Bertrand, American Economic Review, 94( 4), September 2004: 991-1013.

How Much Should We Trust Difference-in-Difference Estimates?

How Much Should We Trust Difference-in-Difference Estimates?” with Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 2004: 249-275.

Pyramids

Pyramids,” with Marianne Bertrand, Journal of the European Economic Association, 1(2-3), April/May 2003: 478-83.  (Non-refereed)

Enjoying the Quiet Life? Corporate Governance and Managerial Preferences

Enjoying the Quiet Life? Corporate Governance and Managerial Preferences,” with Marianne Bertrand, Journal of Political Economy, 111(5), October 2003: 1043-1075.

Public Policy and Extended Families: Evidence from South Africa

Public Policy and Extended Families: Evidence from South Africa,” with Marianne Bertrand & Douglas Miller, World Bank Economic Review, 17(1), 2003: 27-50.

A Memory-Based Model of Bounded Rationality

A Memory-Based Model of Bounded Rationality”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(3), August 2002: 735-774.

Ferreting Out Tunneling: An Application to Indian Business Groups

Ferreting Out Tunneling: An Application to Indian Business Groups,” with Marianne Bertrand & Paras Mehta, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(1), February 2002: 121-48.

Behavioral Economics

Behavioral Economics,” with Richard Thaler, International Encyclopedia of Social Sciences, Pergamon Press, 1st edition, October 1, 2001: 1094-1100. (Non-refereed)

Are CEOs Rewarded for Luck? The Ones Without Principals Are

Are CEOs Rewarded for Luck? The Ones Without Principals Are,” with Marianne Bertrand, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(3), August 2001: 901-32. (Longer version available as “Do CEOs Set Their Own Pay? The Ones Without Principals Do,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #7604).

Do Firm Boundaries Matter?

Do Firm Boundaries Matter?” with David Scharfstein, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 91(2), May 2001: 195-199. (Non-refereed)

Do People Mean What They Say? Implications for Subjective Survey Data

Do People Mean What They Say? Implications for Subjective Survey Data,” with Marianne Bertrand. Shorter version: American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 91(2), May 2001: 67-72. (Non-refereed)